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Vital Dawn
Adam Crisafulli · Vital Knowledge · ~10 min · Pre-market audio briefing
🎧 Open in Apple Podcasts
📋 TL;DR — The Main Story

US stocks staged their best single-day surge since May on Tuesday, closing out a brutal quarter on a high note after reports that President Trump is willing to end the war in Iran without requiring a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Nasdaq led with a +3.8% gain as megacap tech roared back, the S&P 500 gained +2.9% to 6,528, and the Dow surged over 1,000 points — though oil remained above $100/barrel and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is far from resolved. After the close, Nike beat Q3 estimates but issued a grim Q4 outlook, warning sales will fall 2–4% with China revenue expected to crater 20%.

📈 Market Snapshot — Closing Levels · March 31, 2026
SPY · S&P 500 ETF
$650.34
▲ +2.91%
Best session since May 2025
QQQ · Nasdaq-100 ETF
$577.18
▲ +3.39%
Megacap tech led the rally
IWM · Russell 2000 ETF
$248.00
▲ +3.50%
Small-caps outperformed
VIX · Fear Index
30.61
▼ Elevated
Still above 30 — fear persists
BTC · Bitcoin
$68,956
▼ −2.94%
Risk-off in crypto despite equity surge
WTI · Crude Oil
$102.18
▼ Off highs
Retreated from $115 on peace hopes
GLD · Gold
$4,376.90
▼ −3.85%
Safe-haven unwind on Iran de-escalation
🛢️ Macro, Commodities & Rates
WTI Crude Oil
~$103
Well above $100 threshold
US Gas (Avg. Pump)
$4.00+
↑ from $2.98 pre-war
10-Yr Treasury Yield
4.43%
Session range: 4.31–4.43%
Consumer Confidence
91.8
Beat 87.9 estimate ↑
Expectations Index
70.9
Near recession warning level
U. of Michigan Sentiment
53.3
↓ from 56.6 in Feb; near lows
🚀 Notable Movers — ±3% or More
▲ Gainers
Ticker Change Catalyst
IREN
Iris Energy
+8.4% AI/crypto infrastructure rally; broader risk-on sentiment as Iran peace hopes boosted speculative growth names.
META
Meta Platforms
+3–4% Middle East de-escalation signals boosted risk appetite; volume surged as megacap tech led the rebound.
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
~+3% AI demand narrative intact; geopolitical relief trade lifted the semiconductor sector broadly.
SNX
TD SYNNEX Corp.
+est. 4–6% Q1 EPS of $4.73 crushed $3.24 consensus (+$1.49 beat). Revenue of $17.16B vs. $15.59B est.; record Q1 gross billings.
▼ Decliners
Ticker Change Catalyst
CEG
Constellation Energy
−6.5–7% 2026 EPS guidance of $11.50 missed the $11.72 consensus; guidance through 2030 also disappoints vs. AI-fueled nuclear hype.
NKE
Nike Inc.
−est. 5–7% After-hours drop after Q4 guidance warned of −2–4% revenue and a −20% China decline, despite a narrow Q3 EPS beat of $0.35 vs. $0.31.
📊 Top Market Movers — Extended View
▲ Top Gainers
IREN
Iris Energy
+8.4%
SNX
TD SYNNEX
+4–6% est.
META
Meta Platforms
+3–4%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
~+3%
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
+2.9%
▼ Top Losers
CEG
Constellation Energy
−6.5–7%
NKE
Nike Inc. (AH)
−5–7% AH
USO
US Oil Fund ETF
Declined intraday
XLE
Energy Select SPDR
Lagged on peace hopes
🎯 Market Themes — Today's Dominant Narratives
🕊️
Risk-On
Geopolitical De-escalation Trade
The dominant theme today. Reports that Trump is open to ending the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered a broad-based relief rally. Tech, small-caps, and cyclicals all surged in lockstep — a textbook risk-on rotation away from defensives and energy.
NVDA META IWM QQQ SPY
🛢️
Persistent Risk
Oil Shock & Inflation Overhang
Despite the rally, WTI crude remains above $100/barrel and gas prices crossed $4/gallon nationally. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and Iran rejected the US peace plan. Inflation expectations remain elevated, keeping the Fed anchored — and 10-year yields snapped back to 4.43%.
USO XLE TLT TIP
👟
Earnings Watch
Consumer Discretionary Under Pressure
Nike's Q4 warning — sales -2–4%, China -20% — highlights persistent consumer spending headwinds in a high-oil environment. University of Michigan Sentiment at 53.3 and a deteriorating Expectations Index suggest the consumer is cautious. Watch whether NKE's selloff spreads to the broader XLY sector.
NKE XLY PVH RH
🤖
Secular Tailwind
AI Infrastructure Demand Intact
Even amid macro turbulence, AI-linked names held up well. TD SYNNEX's massive earnings beat (revenue +18% YoY) reflects robust enterprise IT and data-center spending. IREN's +8.4% gain highlights appetite for AI compute and digital infrastructure plays when risk appetite returns.
NVDA SNX IREN SMCI AMD
⚛️
Sector Headwind
Nuclear AI Hype Premium Deflating
Constellation Energy's 6–7% drop is a signal that the AI power-demand narrative may have gotten ahead of fundamentals. The nuclear sector had been priced for perfection on the assumption that data center energy contracts would drive explosive growth — CEG's disappointing 2026 guidance is a reality check.
CEG NLR VST ETR
📊
Mixed Signal
Consumer Confidence: Surface vs. Structure
Today's Conference Board print of 91.8 beat the 87.9 estimate, which helped fuel optimism. But under the hood, the Expectations Index at 70.9 is flashing yellow — historically, readings this low precede economic contractions. Markets celebrated the headline; the sub-components deserve more caution.
XLP XLF KRE VNQ
📅 Economic Calendar — Week of March 30 – April 3, 2026
High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact Beat Miss
Source: Trading Economics · All times ET
MonMar 30
FHFA Home Price Index (Jan)
9:00 AM · Prior: +4.1% YoY
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (Mar)
10:30 AM · Prior: −8.3
Tue · Mar 31Actuals ✓
Case-Shiller HPI YoY (Jan)
1:00 PM Actual 1.2% Est 1.3% Prev 4.1%
Chicago PMI (Mar)
1:45 PM Actual 52.8 Est 55.0 Prev 57.7
JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)
2:00 PM Actual 6.882M Est 6.92M Prev 7.24M
CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2:00 PM Actual 91.8 Est 87.9 Prev 91.0
Dallas Fed Services (Mar)
2:30 PM Actual −13.3 Prev −3.2
Fed Goolsbee Speech
4:00 PM · Markets watching for rate path signals
WedApr 1
ADP Employment (Mar)
12:15 PM Actual 63K Est 40K Prev 40K
Retail Sales MoM (Feb)
12:30 PM Actual −0.2% Est +0.3% Prev +0.5%
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
2:00 PM Actual 52.4 Est 52.0 Prev 52.5
S&P Global Mfg PMI Final (Mar)
1:45 PM Actual 51.6 Prev 52.4
EIA Crude Oil Stocks (Mar 27)
2:30 PM Actual +6.926M Prev +2.0M
ThuApr 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28)
12:30 PM Actual 210K Est 213K Prev 212K
Balance of Trade (Feb)
12:30 PM Actual −$54.5B Est −$60.0B Prev −$59.2B
EIA Natural Gas Stocks (Mar 27)
2:30 PM Actual −54 Bcf
Fri 🏖️Apr 3
GOOD FRIDAY — US EQUITY MARKETS CLOSED
Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 🔑
12:30 PM Actual −92K ⚠️ Est +50K Prev +60K
Unemployment Rate (Mar)
12:30 PM Actual 4.4% Est 4.5% Prev 4.4%
Avg Hourly Earnings YoY (Mar)
12:30 PM Actual 3.8% Est 3.6% Prev 3.8%
ISM Services PMI (Mar)
2:00 PM Actual 56.1 Prev 53.5
⚠️ NFP −92K is a massive negative surprise. Markets open Monday — expect significant gap risk.
📅 Earnings Lineup — March 31, 2026
🌅 Before Open / Pre-Market
MKC
McCormick & Company
Q1 results released
FDS
FactSet Research Systems
Fiscal Q results
SNX
TD SYNNEX Corp.
BEAT +$1.49 EPS
🌙 After Close / Post-Market
NKE
Nike Inc. ⭐ Key Report
EPS Beat / Outlook Miss
PVH
PVH Corp.
Results pending
RH
RH (Restoration Hardware)
Luxury retail update
NCNO
nCino Inc.
Cloud banking SaaS
📊 Earnings Calendar — Week of March 30 – April 3, 2026
BMO Before Market Open AMC After Market Close ★★ Key Report
Source: Earnings Whispers · Benzinga
MonMar 30
~15 companies reporting
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
BMO
MSTR
MicroStrategy
AMC
HQI
HireQuest Inc.
AMC
Tue · TODAYMar 31
142 companies reporting
▶ Before Open
SNX ★★
TD SYNNEX · Est $3.20 / $15.6B
BMO
ACT $4.73 ✓ Beat
MKC
McCormick · Est $0.60 / $1.79B
BMO
ACT $0.66 ✓ Beat
FDS
FactSet Research · Est $4.37 / $605M
BMO
BITF
Bitfarms · Est −$0.03 / $59M
BMO
JILL
J.Jill · Est −$0.12 / $135M
BMO
CHA
Chagee Holdings · Est $0.19 / $413M
BMO
▶ After Close
NKE ★★
Nike · Est $0.28 / $11.23B
AMC
ACT $0.35 Beat / Q4 ⚠️
RH
RH · Est $2.21 / $873M
AMC
PVH
PVH Corp. · Est $3.30 / $2.43B
AMC
PLAY
Dave & Buster's · Est $0.43 / $556M
AMC
NCNO
nCino · Est $0.15 / $148M
AMC
BYND
Beyond Meat · Est −$0.11 / $62M
AMC
AAUC
Allied Gold · Est $0.62 / $428M
AMC
SPWH
Sportsman's Warehouse · Est −$0.09 / $335M
AMC
+ ~130 more small-caps
WedApr 1
~17 companies reporting
▶ Before Open
TLRY
Tilray Brands · Est −$0.14 / $201M
BMO
MAXN
Maxeon Solar
BMO
▶ After Close
TBHC
TB Healthcare
AMC
KRUS
Kura Sushi USA
AMC
ThuApr 2
~10 companies reporting
▶ After Close
LEVI
Levi Strauss · Est ~$1.65B rev
AMC
GES
Guess? Inc.
AMC
CCG
Cheche Group
AMC
NAMM
Nuvation Bio
AMC
Fri 🏖️Apr 3
GOOD FRIDAY — MARKETS CLOSED
3 companies reporting
Light; NFP dominates
⚠️ NFP −92K shock released today. Markets open Monday — gap risk high.
📰 Key Catalysts & News
🌍 Geopolitical
Trump signals willingness to end Iran war without reopening Strait of Hormuz
Reports that Trump told administration aides he'd accept a deal that doesn't require the Strait's full reopening sparked a massive risk-on rally. Iranian President Pezeshkian also signaled openness to negotiations — though Iran later denied being in active talks.
⚠️ Geopolitical
Iran rejects US 15-point peace plan; crisis remains unresolved
Despite the market relief rally, Iran responded negatively to the US proposal, delivered via Pakistan. Iran's FM Araghchi told Al Jazeera the two sides are not in negotiations. Oil remained above $100/bbl reflecting ongoing supply disruption.
📊 Earnings
Nike Q3 beat overshadowed by dire Q4 and China guidance
Nike posted Q3 EPS of $0.35 vs. $0.31 expected and revenue of $11.28B, but shocked investors with Q4 guidance for sales -2 to -4% and a -20% China decline. CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround is taking longer than hoped. Shares fell sharply after hours.
📊 Earnings
TD SYNNEX delivers record Q1 beat; guidance in line
SNX crushed Q1 expectations with EPS of $4.73 vs. $3.24 (a $1.49 beat), on revenue of $17.16B vs. $15.59B estimated. Revenue grew 18.1% YoY. CEO Patrick Zammit cited record Q1 gross billings. Q2 revenue guided to ~$16.5B ±$400M.
⚡ Sector
Constellation Energy tumbles on 2026 guidance miss vs. nuclear AI hype
CEG dropped 6.5–7% after guiding 2026 adj. EPS to $11.50, below the $11.72 consensus. Longer-term guidance through 2030 also disappointed investors who had priced in a nuclear AI demand premium. CEG launched a new $5B buyback to soften the blow.
📈 Economic
Consumer Confidence at 91.8 — headline beats, but expectations signal recession risk
The Conference Board's March reading of 91.8 topped the 87.9 estimate. However, the Expectations Index at 70.9 hovers near levels that historically precede recessions. University of Michigan Sentiment fell to 53.3 from 56.6 in February — well below historical averages.
👁️ Trading Watchlist — Monitor Throughout the Day
🕊️
Iran Peace Negotiations
Any headline confirming or denying progress could move markets violently. Watch for statements from Iranian FM Araghchi, Trump, or via Pakistani diplomatic channels.
🛢️
WTI Crude Oil ($100+ Level)
Oil above $100 is the primary inflation risk keeping the Fed on hold. A sustained drop below $95 on peace progress would be a major market catalyst. Watch USO and XLE.
👟
Nike (NKE) — Earnings Fallout
Grim Q4 guidance (-2 to -4% revenue, China -20%) likely weighs on NKE and broader consumer discretionary in regular hours. Watch XLY for sector contagion.
Constellation Energy (CEG)
$5B buyback provides support but guidance miss was significant vs. elevated expectations. Watch for analyst downgrades and follow-through selling vs. value buyers stepping in.
🏦
10-Year Treasury Yield
Rebounded to 4.43% as inflation fears overcame peace optimism. If oil stays elevated, yields could continue climbing, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs).
🤖
AI & Megacap Tech Momentum
NVDA and META led today's surge. Watch whether the geopolitical relief trade sustains or fades if Iran headlines disappoint. NASDAQ holding 21,500 is key near-term support.
⚠️ Disclaimer: All prices, index levels, and percentage changes are approximate and sourced from publicly available news as of the morning of March 31, 2026. This briefing is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always verify data with a real-time financial data provider before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources: The Street · 247 Wall St. · Yahoo Finance · Fortune · CNN Politics · Financial Content · Benzinga · Bloomberg · Schwab Market Update · FinancialContent (Cerbat Gem, MarketMinute) · TD SYNNEX IR · Nike Investor Relations
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